Friday, May 14, 2004

North Korean Nuclear Scenario

There's a report that North Korea may already have eight nuclear warheads and may be able to produce six per year within two years. When I first read it, I wasn't very impressed. Two or eight, it's still mainly a deterrent, not enough to knock the ROK out of the war before the US can arrive.

Then I came across a site that discusses the effects of nuclear blasts. I am not qualified to check their math, but they're arguing that eight Nagasaki-size warheads (20-kilotons each, 160 kilotons total), exploded simultaneously in a daisy-like pattern, would have worse blast and firestorm effects over a 105-square-mile area than a single 1-megaton warhead.

What does it mean if North Korea can do megaton damage right now, and could duplicate that capability every eighteen months by 2006?

2 comments:

cbeck said...

It means perhaps we invaded the wrong country. GW is standing there right about now saying "Dang. You said Korea? I coulda sworn you said Iraq."

The Yell said...

Someday we may have to take out North Korea, but I hope not.