Friday, May 14, 2004

North Korean Nuclear Scenario

There's a report that North Korea may already have eight nuclear warheads and may be able to produce six per year within two years. When I first read it, I wasn't very impressed. Two or eight, it's still mainly a deterrent, not enough to knock the ROK out of the war before the US can arrive.

Then I came across a site that discusses the effects of nuclear blasts. I am not qualified to check their math, but they're arguing that eight Nagasaki-size warheads (20-kilotons each, 160 kilotons total), exploded simultaneously in a daisy-like pattern, would have worse blast and firestorm effects over a 105-square-mile area than a single 1-megaton warhead.

What does it mean if North Korea can do megaton damage right now, and could duplicate that capability every eighteen months by 2006?


cbeck said...

It means perhaps we invaded the wrong country. GW is standing there right about now saying "Dang. You said Korea? I coulda sworn you said Iraq."

The Yell said...

Someday we may have to take out North Korea, but I hope not.